🏙️Autowist Report 105

• 💼BRIEFING

  • Trump Effect for Automotive

  • CATL To Build a New LFP Battery Factory in Europe …

  • EV Battery Degradation Just Isn't Much Of An Issue …

  • BYD Expansion

  • Carwow’s stats on most profitable brands and model …

• 💹FINANCIALS

  • Hyundai Earnings Call Highlights

  • Texas Instruments Earnings Call Highlights

  • Aptiv Split

• ⚡ROUNDUP

• 🔬PATENT WATCH

  • Toyota: Information Processing Device

• 🐦AUTO BUZZ

• 📈MARKET SNAPSHOT

• 📆CALENDAR

💼BRIEFING

Top insights and analysis that is moving the needle in the automotive industry

Trump Effect for Automotive

President Donald Trump's recent executive orders are unlikely to halt electric vehicle (EV) adoption but could prolong the presence of gas and diesel vehicles in the U.S., analysts say. Here's a summary of the key points:

EV Adoption

• Trump eased emissions rules and paused federal funding for EV charging infrastructure, potentially slowing the growth of EV sales.

• S&P Global Mobility now forecasts EVs will make up 25% of U.S. light vehicle sales by 2030, down from an earlier 30% estimate.

• Despite policy changes, automakers like Honda and BMW plan to continue retooling for domestic EV production, driven by investments in battery manufacturing and raw material sourcing.

EV Tax Credits

• The potential elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credit could reduce demand and profitability for automakers like Tesla, Ford, and GM.

Gas-Powered Vehicles

• Eased emissions regulations could benefit established automakers such as Ford and GM, as their profitable internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle production may gain near-term traction.

Trade Policy and Tariffs

• A review of trade policy and potential tariffs on automotive parts imported from Mexico, China, and Canada could impact automakers relying on global supply chains.

• Analysts expect tariff-related changes to remain limited until the renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement in 2026.

CATL To Build a New LFP Battery Factory in Europe in Partnership With a Local Carmaker (Link)

New LFP Factory in Europe
CATL, the world’s largest battery manufacturer, has announced plans to build a lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) battery factory in Europe in partnership with a local carmaker. While details remain undisclosed, speculation points to Volkswagen as the most likely collaborator.

LFP batteries are gaining traction due to their affordability, durability, and safety, making them ideal for entry-level EVs. Despite their lower energy density and challenges in cold climates, European automakers increasingly favor LFP cells for cost-sensitive models.

💡Dependency on Chinese Manufacturers: European automakers face a limited supply of affordable LFP batteries, with most production dominated by Chinese companies like CATL.

💡IRA Exclusion in the U.S.: LFP batteries are largely absent from the U.S. market due to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, which exclude imports from China. Europe, however, remains reliant on Chinese battery expertise for affordable EV solutions.

EV Battery Degradation Just Isn't Much Of An Issue (Link)

Examining 300 medium- and high-mileage EVs, the findings reaffirm that EV batteries degrade so gradually that they rarely become a limiting factor for the car’s usability.

Key Findings:

• On average, EVs retained 90% of their battery capacity after 90,000 miles.

• Even with 130,000 miles, most cars maintained 85% of their original capacity.

• Vehicles with over 200,000 miles still operated with approximately 80% of their initial capacity.

• Battery degradation is steepest in the first couple of years but slows significantly afterward.

• Many EVs incorporate hidden "buffer zones" in their battery packs. These buffer zones compensate for degradation, ensuring consistent usable range for 100,000 to 150,000 miles.

• Modern EV batteries rarely fail outright, even at higher mileage.

• Vehicles like Tesla’s Model 3 Long Range with 290 miles of range (at 80-85% capacity) remain viable for daily use.

BYD Expansion

Global Expansion: BYD, the world's largest EV maker by production, will open a new $1 billion EV manufacturing plant in Indonesia by the end of 2025. The facility will have an annual production capacity of 150,000 vehicles, following the launch of a similar plant in Thailand last year.

Strategic Focus: The plant will serve as a hub for exports, enabling BYD to solidify its position in Southeast Asia and expand its global footprint.

Local Market Leadership: BYD already leads Indonesia's EV market with a 36% share, selling nearly 15,500 vehicles in its first full sales year. Popular models include the Seal, Atto 3, Dolphin, and the newly launched MPV, the M6.

Future Plans: BYD plans to launch additional models in Indonesia and expects "rapid" sales growth in 2025. Its luxury Denza brand has also entered the market.

Carwow’s stats on most profitable brands and models of last quarter

Carwow is an online platform that helps people buy, sell, or lease cars in a more streamlined and competitive way. It operates primarily as a car marketplace, connecting car buyers with dealers and sellers.

💹FINANCIALS

A focused look at recent automotive company financials

Hyundai Earnings Call Highlights

• Revenue Growth:

  • Consolidated revenue increased by 11.9% YoY in Q4 2024 to KRW46.6 trillion.

  • Record annual revenue of KRW175.2 trillion in 2024, exceeding sales growth guidance.

• Strategic Expansion Plans:

  • Plans to localize production in the US to mitigate tariff risks.

  • Focused expansion in global financial markets, including a new subsidiary launch in Indonesia and increased presence in Australia.

• Emission and Tariff Challenges:

  • Stricter European emission regulations and potential US tariffs may weigh on profitability.

• Motional and Autonomous Driving:

  • Waymo's autonomous driving technology to be integrated into the IONIQ 5.

  • Robotaxi commercialization targeted by 2026, with pilot programs in Las Vegas and Phoenix.

• Boston Dynamics:

  • No confirmed plans for a Boston Dynamics IPO.

  • Exploring strategies to mitigate US tariff impacts and leverage FX rate benefits.

• Future Production Plans:

  • Increased flexibility in the US for hybrid and ICE vehicle production to adapt to market and policy changes.

  • Emphasis on scaling EV production globally, particularly in Europe and China.

Texas Instruments Earnings Call Highlights

Automotive accounted for 35% of total revenue in 2024, underscoring its strategic importance.

Despite a sequential decline of mid-single digits (~5%), automotive remains a key focus area for growth.

Geographic Performance in Automotive:

• China: Showed growth, driven by strong performance in the electric vehicle (EV) segment, which benefits from higher chip content per vehicle.

• Other Regions: Declines were noted in Europe, the U.S., and Japan, offsetting the gains in China.

Aptiv Split

Aptiv PLC announced its plan to separate its Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS) business into a standalone entity, creating two independent companies.

The new Aptiv will focus on advanced sensor-to-cloud technology solutions, while EDS will become a leading global supplier of low and high voltage signal, power, and data distribution solutions for automotive and commercial vehicles.

The separation, expected to be completed by March 31, 2026, aims to enhance strategic focus, drive growth, and create shareholder value. The spin-off will be tax-free for Aptiv shareholders and is projected to strengthen both entities' financial performance and market positions.

Highlights from the Investor Presentation

⚡ROUNDUP

Key headlines shaping the auto industry this week

• Rivian Is Offering $6,000 In Discounts On Its Excellent Trucks And SUVs (Link)

• What Trump’s executive orders mean for automakers (Link)

• CATL stock slips as EV battery giant hints at first annual revenue decline in 2024 (Link)

• Qualcomm and MapmyIndia partner for automotive connectivity (Link)

• Kaspersky uncovers security flaws in Mercedes-Benz infotainment system (Link)

• Rekor Systems and SoundHound AI innovates emergency vehicle tech (Link)

• Hyundai to replace batteries in EVs in US for subsidy eligibility (Link)

• European automakers face a "perfect storm" as sales stagnate (Link)

• Polestar Energy makes home charging smarter, more efficient and cheaper (Link)

• BYD models to debut advanced smart driving systems in 2025 (Link)

• Nearly three-quarters of UK vehicle recall issues remain unresolved (Link)

• The Volvo XC40 Recharge Gets A New Name In The U.S. And A Bigger Battery (Link)

• Audi best performer for used car profitability in Q4 (Link)

• Tesla's 'Brand Value' Plummeted By $15 Billion In 2024: Report (Link)

• Lewis Hamilton Really Suited Up For His First Day At Ferrari (Link)

• VW Will Have To Survive Until 2026 Without Any New EVs (Link)

• Tata Elxsi and Minespider partner to launch MOBIUS+ for battery lifecycle traceability (Link)

• CATL To Build a New LFP Battery Factory in Europe in Partnership With a Local Carmaker (Link)

• China EV registrations in W3: Nio 2,800, Xiaomi 5,600, Tesla 10,000, BYD 55,000 (Link)

• Maruti Suzuki's new e VITARA electric SUV to feature e-axle technology (Link)

• US adds CATL and Tencent to 'Chinese Military Company' list; both call it a mistake (Link)

• Google Announces Critical Android Auto Fix, Time To Enable Automatic Updates (Link)

• Huawei Drops Official Photos of S-Class Rival Maextro S800, Gives Off Big German Vibes (Link)

• US safety regulators expand Ford hands-free driving tech investigation (Link)

• BYD is about to open another massive EV plant overseas with 150,000 vehicle capacity (Link)

• Chips and challenges: TSMC's export restrictions and its fallout for mainland China's auto industry (Link)

• AVL introduces its digital battery passport (Link)

• Tesla’s redesigned Model Y is coming to North America in March for $60,000 (Link)

• Rivian will add hands-free driver assist to vehicles this year, ‘eyes-off’ next year (Link)

• EV Battery Degradation Just Isn't Much Of An Issue (Link)

• Rivian (RIVN) has several automakers ‘knocking on our door’ for EV tech (Link)

• Nissan to source EV batteries from SK On in US market (Link)

• Apple admits next-gen CarPlay is late, but still in development (Link)

• EU exploring pan-European subsidies to boost electric vehicle demand (Link)

• Polestar Promises More Tariff-Avoiding Local Vehicle Production (Link)

• Chinese Investors Eye Volkswagen’s Excess German Plants (Link)

🔬PATENT WATCH

Fresh Innovations from global automotive OEMs

Toyota: Information Processing Device

Technical Components:

1. Information Processing Device:

   • Control Unit: Processes reservation data, creates user profiles, and adjusts profiles based on history.

   • Communication Unit: Transmits profile data to vehicles and receives requests or feedback.

2. Vehicle Components:

   • Vehicle Control Unit: Downloads and applies profile data to adjust vehicle settings automatically.

   • Device Settings: Includes seats, mirrors, steering, infotainment, and other customizable features.

Key Features

• Automatic Profile Creation:

  • The device collects reservation information (e.g., schedule, user attributes like height, weight, age, and gender) entered via a user’s terminal (e.g., smartphone).

  • Based on this data, it creates a profile with parameter values tailored to the user’s preferences, such as seat position, steering wheel height, mirror settings, and infotainment preferences.

• Seamless Vehicle Integration:

  • The generated profile is transmitted to the reserved vehicle before the scheduled usage. The vehicle downloads and applies these settings, ensuring the car is personalized for the user upon entry.

• No Need for Electronic Keys:

  • Unlike traditional systems requiring user identification via an electronic key, this system operates solely on the reservation and profile data, making it ideal for shared vehicles like rentals and car-sharing services.

• Adaptive Learning via History:

  • The system can adjust future profiles by analyzing the user’s history of settings and preferences, fine-tuning adjustments based on past behavior.

• Dynamic Profile Updates:

  • Profiles can be updated before usage based on user feedback. For example, the user can review and confirm or modify settings through their device before the vehicle is ready.

Potential Applications:

1. Car Rentals and Sharing Platforms:

   • Optimizes shared vehicles by preparing them to suit individual users before their scheduled ride.

2. Fleet Management Systems:

   • Enhances usability in corporate or government fleets where multiple users share vehicles.

3. Luxury and High-End Vehicles:

   • Can offer premium personalization experiences, catering to specific customer preferences.

🐦AUTO BUZZ

Top posts, tweets, and videos from the automotive industry

📈MARKET SNAPSHOT

This week’s key movers in the automotive stock market

📆CALENDAR

Upcoming auto industry events and and earnings calls