🎲Autowist Report 104

• 💼BRIEFING

  • Carbon credits are killing the European Automotive …

  • Nio has unveiled their Vehicle API

  • Rivian secures a new government loan, and extends …

    • Latest News about Rivian

  • CATL claimed 45.2% of power battery market in Chin …

• 💹FINANCIALS

  • Polestar just released an update on their strategy …

• ⚡ROUNDUP

• 🔬PATENT WATCH

  • Porsche: Integrated Vehicle Software and Remote Ap …

    • Benefits:

• 🤖TECH INNOVATIONS

  • Window screen projector from Continental (Link)

  • Screen display innovations at CES

    • Foldable screens from LG

    • Rolled down displays from Hyundai

    • Expandable and Bendable screens from BOE

• 📈MARKET SNAPSHOT

  • Xpeng Rally

• 📆CALENDAR

💼BRIEFING

Top insights and analysis that is moving the needle in the automotive industry

Carbon credits are killing the European Automotive Industry (Link)

European carmakers such as Volkswagen and Renault face tough EU emissions targets starting in 2025. To avoid steep fines for exceeding average CO₂ limits (set at 93.6g per km), they can either increase electric vehicle (EV) sales—potentially by discounting—or buy carbon credits from competitors whose sales are more heavily weighted to EVs.

Chinese automakers BYD and MG-SAIC, along with US-based Tesla, are likely to benefit by selling credits to European manufacturers that cannot quickly scale up their electric fleets. Analysts estimate that some companies may pay hundreds of millions of euros to pool with these rivals and thereby reduce their overall emissions average.

💡EU has successfully managed to self-sabotage their own industries with their regulatory forward approach to development. All smart engineers working in and around OEMs have been stuck with an EU policy related problem at least once in the last year. The cost of innovation and even barely operating in the automotive sector will allow foreign players to take over the market. The best talent will also move out(both geographically and metaphorically) to better lands. Now this is a vicious cycle similar to debt traps that large companies/countries will never be able to get out of, as the only way to get out of this is to increased productivity or through innovation. Both of which is costliest to execute than ever.

Nio has unveiled their Vehicle API

Nio has introduced a free Vehicle API in Europe, allowing partner companies to access key vehicle data and functions for building integrated apps. The API covers five data areas—Vehicle Profile, Location Data, Vehicle Details, Charging Status, and Control Charging. Early partners include Enode (linking cars to smart home ecosystems) and Tronity (battery monitoring, cost tracking).

Drivers in Nio’s five European markets can connect their vehicles to these partner platforms without extra hardware or fees. Owners must opt-in by logging in, reviewing data packages, and consenting to data sharing and vehicle control requests.

💡The flaw in this model is assuming there is enough of a customer base so that third party vendors are interested in developing solutions for just Nio. For the offer to be more lucrative, this solution needs to be extendable to multiple vendors.

Rivian secures a new government loan, and extends partnership with VW

Rivian has finalized a $6.6 billion loan from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing (ATVM) program to build a new manufacturing facility in Georgia. The company originally announced plans for the plant in December 2021, but later paused construction to cut costs; with the new federal funding in place, Rivian plans to break ground in 2026 and begin production of its new R2 SUV and R3 crossover by 2028. Split into two phases, the loan provides up to $3.4 billion in the first tranche and $2.6 billion in the second (plus roughly $600 million for interest), contingent on Rivian meeting sales and design milestones.

In other news…

Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume recently hinted at expanding the automaker’s new EV partnership with Rivian, boosting Rivian’s (RIVN) stock price. The two companies launched a joint venture in November—“Rivian and VW Group Technology, LLC”—and have primarily focused on co-developing advanced software and EV architectures.

• Investment and Potential Models
  Volkswagen already plans to invest up to $5.8 billion in the tie-up. Rivian’s software expertise will help develop a platform with fewer control units—seven rather than the 100+ typically found in VW models—potentially streamlining the production of upcoming electric vehicles such as a new Porsche SUV (codenamed “K1”), an electric Golf successor, and models under Volkswagen’s Scout brand in the U.S.

• Rivian’s New Georgia Facility
  Just one day before Blume’s comments, Rivian secured up to $6.6 billion in federal loans to build a new factory in Georgia. Set to begin construction in 2026 with production in 2028, this facility will make Rivian’s next-generation R2 and R3 electric models, which will also benefit from the enhanced partnership with Volkswagen.

• Stock Response
  News of the expanded collaboration has lifted Rivian’s share price. Although RIVN shares are still down compared to a year ago, they have risen significantly since the partnership was announced and continue to trend upward with ongoing developments.

  

Latest News about Rivian

CATL claimed 45.2% of power battery market in China, BYD claimed 25.1% in 2024 (Link)

• Cumulative Installed Capacity (2024):

  • China's total power battery capacity reached 548.4 GWh, up 41.5% year-on-year.

  • Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries dominated with 74.6% (409 GWh), growing by 56.7%.

  • Ternary batteries made up 25.3% (139 GWh), increasing by 10.2%.

• Market Share:

  • CATL led with 45.2% market share, followed by BYD at 25.1%.

  • Other contributors included CALB-Tech (6.9%), Gotion (4.5%), and EVE Battery (3.4%).

• Raw Material Usage (2024):

  • Significant consumption included 1.934 million tons of LFP materials and 490,000 tons of ternary materials.

  • Other materials: 1.27 million tons of negative electrode materials, 16.42 billion square meters of separators, and over 1 million tons of electrolytes for LFP batteries.

💹FINANCIALS

A focused look at recent automotive company financials

Polestar just released an update on their strategy.

Here are the key updates that move the needle

💸Ongoing Collaboration with Geely to Secure Additional Equity and Debt Financing

🟩Upside

• ➡️Access to Geely’s extensive financial resources and global manufacturing network can help Polestar fund product development, scale production, and expand retail operations without shouldering all costs alone.

• ➡️Geely’s support can allow Polestar to expedite launches of new models (like Polestar 5 and 7) and broaden market coverage more quickly.

🟥Downside

• ➡️Raising funds via equity may dilute existing shareholders’ stakes. Debt financing entails repayment obligations, which can strain cash flow if not managed carefully.

• ➡️Different strategic priorities or operational cultures could lead to friction, potentially impacting Polestar’s innovative, premium identity.

🎆Positive Free Cash Flow After Investments Expected by 2027

🟥Downside

• ➡️Long Timeline: 2027 may seem distant for some investors, who might prefer quicker returns, potentially leading to pressure on Polestar’s leadership or lower market confidence if milestones are not clearly communicated.

• ➡️Market Uncertainties: Economic downturns, changes in EV regulations, or supply chain disruptions could jeopardize Polestar’s path to profitability.

🏢Shift to an “Active Selling Model” & Targeting a 75% Increase in Retail Spaces by 2026

🟩Upside

• ➡️Enhanced Brand Presence: More retail locations improve visibility, making Polestar vehicles more accessible to customers and reinforcing Polestar as a premium EV brand.

🟥Downside

• ➡️Opening new retail spaces and establishing partnerships involve upfront capital and ongoing expenses (rent, staffing, marketing).

• ➡️Competition for Prime Locations: Premium showrooms require carefully selected, often expensive retail spaces, which can impact profitability if sales volumes don’t ramp up as expected.

🤖Plan to Gradually Transition to a Single Vehicle Architecture from Polestar 7 Onwards

🟩Upside

• ➡️Standardizing components, software, and engineering efforts across models lowers manufacturing and R&D expenses, helping Polestar achieve profitability targets.

• ➡️A single, flexible platform speeds up new model launches, simplifies the supply chain, and enables quicker adoption of new technologies (e.g., EV powertrains, battery systems).

🟥Downside

• ➡️Higher Initial Development Investment: Transitioning to a single architecture requires significant upfront engineering and retooling costs, which must be carefully managed.

⚡ROUNDUP

Key headlines shaping the auto industry this week

• Parking Lot Drive-In Theater Potential with Continental's In-Cabin Projector (Link)

• Mahindra BE 6 scores 5-star BNCAP safety rating (Link)

• Mahindra XEV 9e secures 5-star Bharat NCAP safety rating (Link)

• Vehicle prices approach all-time high—Here is what’s driving the trend (Link)

• Illinois awards $100M for electric truck charging corridor, Tesla to get $40M (Link)

• CATL claimed 45.2% of power battery market in China, BYD claimed 25.1% in 2024 (Link)

• Bug Makes Android Auto Users Switch to CarPlay: I Don't Like Apple, but iPhones Work (Link)

• Hyundai and TVS join hands to make micro 3W, 4W electric vehicles in India (Link)

• Why the Car Industry Will Not Pay €15 Billion in Penalties in 2025 (Link)

• BYD Yangwang U8 PHEV SUV showcased at Auto Expo 2025 (Link)

• EV consumer tax credit, leasing loophole ‘most vulnerable,’ experts say (Link)

• Why Honda Dealers Actually Want EVs (Link)

• New Vehicle Sales Draw Down Inventory (Link)

• Nio Launches Vehicle API in Europe to Enable Third-Party Integration (Link)

• Suzuki exhibits its first battery EV, the e VITARA in India (Link)

• Rivian and U.S. Department of Energy finalize loan agreement to support future Georgia manufacturing site (Link)

• Rivian finalizes $6.6B loan for its Georgia factory (Link)

• Rivian (RIVN) stock rises as Volkswagen plans to expand $5.8 billion EV partnership (Link)

• How auto suppliers can prepare for tariffs against Canada and Mexico (Link)

• NXP secures €1 billion loan from EIB for semiconductor R&D in Europe (Link)

• Mercedes Boss Wants The EU To Drop Emissions Fines (Link)

• Honda asks Nissan to buy Renault’s stake as negotiations continue (Link)

• Cognizant partners with Siemens to boost software-defined vehicle development (Link)

• BYD officially enters the South Korean market with the BYD Atto 3 SUV (Link)

• GM banned from selling your driving data for five years (Link)

• Green power for all ID. models on European roads: Volkswagen supports 26 solar and wind farms (Link)

• CES 2025: Primax unveils next-gen automotive audio-vision solutions (Link)

• Panasonic Automotive Systems’ moving coil technology adopted for Qi2 line extension (Link)

• Volkswagen plans to merge its EV charging and fueling services subsidiaries (Link)

• Hexagon launches cloud-native solution for ADAS and autonomous vehicle testing (Link)

• Europe’s carmakers risk hefty bill for carbon credits from Chinese rivals (Link)

🔬PATENT WATCH

Fresh Innovations from global automotive OEMs

Porsche: Integrated Vehicle Software and Remote Application Patent

This patent describes a computer-implemented method and software designed to enhance in-vehicle experiences by presenting information about vehicle functions and enabling user control. Key features include:

1. Secure Connectivity: A software application connects securely to a vehicle's network.

2. Function Selection: Users can choose from a variety of vehicle functions, such as radio favorites, sound profiles, climate control, and wellness modes.

3. Customizable Control: Functions can be adjusted based on user preferences (e.g., sound settings, temperature, ambient lighting).

4. Ease of Use: Functions can be activated or customized with minimal effort, such as one-button presses or voice commands.

5. Integration with Mobile Devices: The system interacts seamlessly with devices like smartphones, offering expanded control and personalization.

6. Smart Ecosystem: The software can integrate with home automation (e.g., Apple HomeKit) and external applications (e.g., AI models like ChatGPT) for extended functionality.

7. Modes for Convenience: Predefined modes like "Cool Down" or "Relax" simultaneously adjust multiple vehicle systems to enhance comfort and efficiency.

Benefits:

• Personalization: Users can create customized vehicle experiences tailored to their preferences.

• Convenience: Functions are presented in an easy-to-navigate format with intuitive controls.

• Safety: Reduces distractions by simplifying access to key vehicle features.

• Integration: Leverages third-party apps and smart device ecosystems for additional functionality.

🤖TECH INNOVATIONS

An inside look into new automotive technology

Window screen projector from Continental (Link)

Screen display innovations at CES

Foldable screens from LG

LG Display plans to showcase its latest in-car display innovations at CES, focusing on “screenification” by offering slidable and foldable OLED screens. These can be hidden away or extended on demand, such as displays in seat backs that retract into the ceiling when not in use. An “Advanced Thin OLED” using glass substrates is also on the agenda, aiming to deliver high durability at a more accessible price point, alongside larger, higher-resolution LCDs using low-temperature polycrystalline silicon (LTPS) technology.

A key trend is front passenger screens, appearing in new models like the Audi Q6 e-tron and Ram 1500 Rev. To address driver-distraction concerns, LG is introducing a “Switchable Privacy Mode” that alters the viewing angle so only the passenger can see the screen’s content. Overall, the forthcoming displays demonstrate LG Display’s aim to integrate flexible, high-end entertainment and infotainment solutions into modern car interiors.

Rolled down displays from Hyundai

Hyundai Mobis has unveiled a roll-up OLED display designed for vehicle interiors, potentially transforming dashboard layouts. Since OLED technology doesn’t require a rigid glass surface, the screen can be made of flexible plastic—allowing it to roll away when not needed and expand to as large as 30 inches. The display can show minimal information in driving mode to reduce distractions or fully extend for media viewing when the vehicle is parked or charging. By blending seamlessly into the dashboard, this “invisible” screen design could appeal especially to European and North American luxury brands, which have already shown interest.

Expandable and Bendable screens from BOE

📈MARKET SNAPSHOT

This week’s key movers in the automotive stock market

Xpeng Rally

📆CALENDAR

Upcoming auto industry events and and earnings calls